Short BIO
Dr. Egon Smeral is Professor of Tourism Economics at the Modul-University, Vienna, Austria. Secretary General of the Tourist Research Centre (TRC), member of the In International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism (AIEST), the international Academy for the Study of Tourism (IAST), and the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF). Further, Egon Smeral is associate editor of the journal Annals of Tourism Research, member of the editorial review board of Tourism Management, and of the editorial board of the journals Tourism Analysis, the Tourism Review, Anatolia and Tourism Economics.
Research
His areas of research are applied economic theory and politics (especially in the fields of tourism economics, leisure and service sector economics), resilience of socio-economic systems, tourism forecasting and modelling, impact analysis and Tourism Satellite Accounts, designing and evaluating tourism policies programs as well as marketing strategies.
Courses
- Research Colloquium
- Scientific writing
- Managerial Economics
Projects
Egon Smeral
Ökonomische Aspekte der Weltausstellung Wien-Budapest 1995
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I. Meyer, St. Schönfelder, F. Sinabell, Egon Smeral
Ansatzpunkte für eine Alpenstrategie
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Die Regionen des Alpenraums wollen eine Alpenraumstrategie erarbeiten, die gleichberechtigt neben anderen makroregionalen Strategien steht und zu einer stärkeren und nachhaltigeren Entwicklung des Lebens-, Wirtschafts- und Erholungsraumes Alpen beitragen soll. Die Studie beleuchtet die Situation des Alpenraumes in den thematischen Bereichen Landwirtschaft, Tourismus, Verkehr und Umwelt und erarbeitet Ansatzpunkte für eine Alpenraumstrategie.
The regions of the European Alps intend to develop a strategy for the Alps that is equal in status to other macroregional strategies and contributes to a better and more sustainable development of the Alps as a region for living, business and recreation. The study illuminates the situation of the Alpine region in terms of agriculture, tourism, transport and environment, developing approaches to a strategy that covers the territory of the European Alps.
Egon Smeral
Absatzschwierigkeiten in den USA
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Egon Smeral, W Auer, W Weber, M Fuchs, M Peters
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Peter Laimer, Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Forecasting International Tourism with Due Regard to Asymmetric Income Effects
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P. Laimer, Egon Smeral
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E Smeral
Die Zukunft des internationalen Tourismus - Entwicklungsperspektiven für das 21. Jahrhundert
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Egon Smeral, M Wüger
Prognose der kurzfristigen Entwicklung der Tourismusnachfrage: Sommersaison 2006
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Egon Smeral, U Huemer, H Mahringer
Arbeitsmarktprobleme im Beherbergungs- und Gaststättenwesen
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Egon Smeral
Exportpreise und Export struktur
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E. Smeral
Wachstumsmaschine Tourismus: semper et ubique?
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P. Laimer, Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Econometric Forecasts for Tourism Demand to 2005
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A complete system of demand equations which was developed previously to generate forecasts of tourism imports and exports is modified to allow for destination-specific demand structures in the tourism export functions. The new model is shown to be considerably more realistic than the original one, and represents a major conceptual improvement. Furthermore, the modified complete system of demand equations yields more accurate outof-sample forecasts, across both varying time horizons and types of forecast. The new model is used to generate forecasts of tourism imports and exports for 18 countries and various major geographical areas, including the recently expanded European Union, for the period up to 2005 for different scenarios.
E Smeral
Strukturelle Aspekte der langfristigen Tourismusentwicklung
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Egon Smeral, M Wüger
Prognosemethoden für die kurzfristige Entwicklung der Tourismusnachfrage
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Egon Smeral
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E Smeral
Aspects to Justify Public Tourism Promotion: An Economic Perspective
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E. Smeral
Mögliche Auswirkungen der Finanz- und Konjunkturkrise auf den österreichischen Tourismus
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This estimate of the effects of the economic and financial crisis on the international and Austrian tourism industry takes into account that demand for tourism services (being "non-necessary" consumer goods contrasting to "necessary" ones such as food, heating, lighting, rent) is disproportionately affected whenever a serious economic crisis erupts. While international demand will go into a tailspin in 2009, the decline of Austrian demand for foreign travel (tourism exports in real terms reduced by 3.5 percent) appears to be less precipitous than the average of the euro zone. In 2010 tourism exports are expected to shrink only slightly (–0.5 percent).
P. Laimer, J. Ostertag-Sydler, Egon Smeral
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Tourism is a big factor in the economy of Lower Austria: According to the regional tourism satellite account computed for Lower Austria by Statistics Austria and WIFO, total spending on holiday and business trips, visits to relatives and friends and stays at weekend and second homes amounted to € 2.78 billion in 2008, a plus of 3.2 percent. Of this sum, 65.8 percent were spent by domestic travellers, 32.9 percent by foreigners and 1.3 percent by domestic travellers for stays in their second homes. Tourism directly added € 1.19 billion to output in Lower Austria, which in mathematical terms corresponds to 2.7 percent of the gross regional product. Based on the input-output table for 2005, the value directly and indirectly added by tourism to the regional economy was 5.8 percent in 2008.
E Smeral
Ansatzpunkte für eine innovative Wettbewebspolitik
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Egon Smeral, H. Song, D. Wu
Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Econometric Models Forecasting the Recession 2009
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Egon Smeral
Zukunftstrends für Tourismus und Freizeit
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Egon Smeral
Alternative Modelle und Hypothesen der Konsum- und Sparenentscheidung
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E Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Future Trends in International Tourism
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Egon Smeral, Haiyan Song
Varying demand elasticities and forecasting performance
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Egon Smeral
Variations in seasonal outbound travel across the business cycles
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Egon Smeral
Public Financing of Tourism Organisations: A Conceptual Approach
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Egon Smeral, Oliver Fritz, Peter Laimer, Jürgen Weiß
Bericht über die Bedeutung der österreichischen Tourismus- und Freizeitwirtschaft im Jahr 2017
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Egon Smeral
Substantive versus Statistical Significance: Contradiction or Co-Existence in Tourism Demand Studies
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E Smeral
Tourismus wächst weltweit kräftig - in Österreich knapp 9% des BIP
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Egon Smeral
Zukunftsstrategien für den österreichischen Tourismus
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Egon Smeral, P Keller
InnoTour-Erfolg eines tourismuspolitischen Programms
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O. Fritz, S. Schiman, Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Grundlagen einer querschnittsorientierten Freizeit und Tourismuspolitik
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Egon Smeral, M Wüger
Prognose der kurzfristigen Entwicklung der Tourismusnachfrage: Sommersaison 2005
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Egon Smeral
Tourism Facing the Need to Adjust: Development Perspectives and Possible Strategies
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Egon Smeral
Overcrowding of tourism destinations: some suggestions for a solution
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Egon Smeral
Policy Measures for Reducing the Environmental Impact of Tourism
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E. Smeral
The Tourism System - An Interdisciplinary Approach
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Egon Smeral
Mechanisms for Innovation Development in Winter Sports Resorts
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Egon Smeral, H Kramer, E Walterskirchen
Situation des österreichischen Fremdenverkehrs und Perspektiven bis zum Jahr 2000
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Egon Smeral
Ein Exportallokationsmodell für die westlichen Industrieländer
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Egon Smeral
Austria's Tourism in 2025: The Shift to Urbanized Agglomerations
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Peter Laimer, S. Ehn-Fragner, Egon Smeral
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E. Smeral
Tourismusstrategische Ausrichtung 2015-Wachstum durch Strukturwandel
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A model that accounts for the main causes of the competitive position of a given tourist destination is used to identify possible growth paths up to 2015 against the background of current trends in international and domestic tourism. It computes a bandwidth of +1.5 to +2.5 percent p.a. for real tourism sales in Austria, and also supplies strategic levers that offer the prospect of boosting tourism growth and increase market shares.
Egon Smeral
The Application of the TSA in a Regional Context: The Case of Upper Austria
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Egon Smeral
Die Zukunft des Österrichischen Tourismus
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Egon Smeral
Importance and Development of Austria's Alpine Tourism Industry
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P. Laimer, Egon Smeral
Ein Tourismus-Satellitenkonto für Wien. Ökonomische Zusammenhänge, Methoden und Hauptergebnisse 2005
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E. Smeral
Public Financing of Tourism Organisations: A Conceptual Approach
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P Laimer, E Smeral
Ein Tourismus-Satellitenkonto für Österreich
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Importance and Future Development of Austria's Alpine Tourism Industry
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Egon Smeral, Irem Önder
Comparison of forecasting accuracy in city tourism using different models
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Wirtschaftliche Rolle des Tourismus in den Alpen. Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Wettbewerbsposition
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Ulrich Gunter, Irem Önder, Egon Smeral
Scientific value of econometric tourism demand studies
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The objective of this paper was to evaluate the scientific value of econometric tourism demand studies. Based on a questionnaire answered by ourselves we analyzed articles published in Annals of Tourism Research, Journal of Travel Research, Tourism Management, and Tourism Economics during the period 2007 to 2017. The evaluation showed that current scientific practice generally failed to differentiate between substantive (economic) significance and statistical significance, and used these terms interchangeably in many cases. In line with these flaws, most authors avoided discussing the estimation results in terms of their size and their reliability, as well as failing to adequately address the limitations of their studies and to justify the chosen methods.
Egon Smeral
Impacts of the World Recession and Economic Crisis on Tourism: Forecasts and Potential Risks
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In the face of the world recession, this article concentrates on analyzing and forecasting demand for outbound traveling in Australia, Canada, United States, Japan, and the EU-15 countries in terms of tourism imports at constant prices and exchange rates. Drawing on an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the global recession and its impact on tourism demand for outbound traveling, the article develops forecasts for the period from 2009 to 2010. For 2010, two scenarios are created to project demand for foreign travel. The study is rounded off by a discussion of forecast uncertainties and open questions.
Oliver Fritz, Peter Laimer, Jürgen Weiß, Egon Smeral
Bericht über die Bedeutung der Österreichischen Tourismus- und Freizeitwirtschaft im Jahr 2015
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Egon Smeral, Lucie Plzakova
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This contribution highlights that accounting for the fact that tourism income elasticities do not remain stable is crucial for analyzing business cycles and formulating business strategies. Because demand forecasting is a necessity for tourism management to define efficient business strategies we point out that approaches with constant elasticity assumptions might lead to substantial forecasting failures. This is especially true for periods characterized by major economic fluctuations and changes in the macro-economic framework conditions. Therefore, in the course of distinct business cycles, we have to take into account that different income effects are to be expected. We emphasize coherently that the integration of psychological factors such as loss aversion and other quality of life aspects as well as economic factors like liquidity constraints, reluctant lending behavior of banks, precautionary saving, changing household behavior and financial innovations delivers an effective framework to explain asymmetric behavior in tourism demand.
P. Laimer, J. Ostertag-Sydler, Egon Smeral
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Tourism satellite accounts (TSAs) are designed to map and analyse tourism as an economic phenomenon in connection with the national accounting system and other economic statistics. In this, the national accounts provide the frame and integration pattern. But a TSA is more than just a subsystem of the national accounts, especially as it allows considering, on an as-needed basis, additional information such as employment and investment. The TSA concept provides for a breakdown in "tourism-specific", "tourism-related" and "non-tourism-specific" production. Overall (in terms of direct and indirect value added) the tourism industry contributed 7.6 percent to GDP in 2009, based on current value-adding multipliers as per the input-output table of 2005. This index is expected to be 7.5 percent in 2011 and 7.3 percent in 2011. In 2009, tourism contributed 9.9 percent in direct and indirect employment effects to overall employment (gainfully employed based on full-time equivalents).
Egon Smeral, H. Song, G. Li, J. Chen
Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited
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This study evaluates the forecasting accuracy of five alternative econometric models in the context of predicting the quarterly international tourism demand in 25 countries or country groupings. Tourism demand is measured in terms of tourist expenditure by inbound international visitors in a destination. Two univariate time series models are included in the forecasting comparison as benchmarks. Accuracy is assessed in terms of error magnitude. Seasonality is an important feature of forecasting models and requires careful handling. For each of the 25 destinations, individual models are estimated over the 1980Q1-2005Q1 period, and forecasting performance is assessed using data covering the 2005Q2-2007Q1 period. The empirical results show that the time-varying parameter (TVP) model provides the most accurate short-term forecasts, whereas the naïve (no-change) model performs best in long-term forecasting up to two years. This study provides new evidence of the TVP model's outstanding performance in short-term forecasting. Through the incorporation of a seasonal component into the model, the TVP model forecasts short-run seasonal tourism demand well.
Egon Smeral
Declining income tourism elasticities in a macro-economic context
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Egon Smeral
Tourism Demand, Economic Theory, and Econometrics: An Integrated Approach
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This article uses econometric methods to estimate how tourism demand reacts to increased economicgrowth. Three models are introduced and used in the illustration of the effects of a 1% increase in growth on real revenue from tourism in nine European countries.
P. Laimer, J. Ostertag-Sydler, Egon Smeral
Ein Tourismus-Satellitenkonto für Wien. Ökonomische Zusammenhänge, Methoden und Hauptergebnisse 2008
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Tourism is a big factor in the economy of Vienna: According to the regional tourism satellite account computed for Vienna by Statistics Austria and WIFO, total spending on holiday and business trips, visits to relatives and friends and stays at weekend and second homes amounted to € 3.67 billion in 2008, a plus of 1.9 percent. Of this sum, 44.9 percent were spent by foreign travellers, 54.7 percent by Austrians and 0.4 percent by domestic travellers for stays in their second homes. Tourism directly added € 1.24 billion (+3.8 percent) to output in Vienna, which in mathematical terms corresponds to 1.6 percent of Vienna's gross regional product. Based on the input-output table for 2005 and also accounting for indirect effects, the tourism industry added € 3.55 billion or 4.7 percent to the overall regional economy in 2008.
Egon Smeral
Growth Accounting for Tourism Industries
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The availability of new data files from an EU research project has made it possible to analyze the sources of long-term supply growth in the hotel and restaurant industries of eight selected countries. This study is the first to use the growth accounting model to analyze growth determinants in the hotel and restaurant sector in an international context. The model allows isolating the impact of capital services of information and communication technology and non—information and communication technology, the impact of quantitative labor inputs measured by working hours and labor composition, and the influence of multifactor productivity on value-added growth in the hotel and restaurant industry. It provides a conceptual framework, which is of fundamental importance for policy evaluation. An analysis of the results shows that in most cases the greatest contribution to growth is derived from the quantitative labor input, followed by capital services of non— information and communication technology.
E Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Why the Public Should Pay for Tourism Marketing: A Public Economics Perspective
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Egon Smeral
Forecasting World Tourism 1998-2010
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Egon Smeral
The productivity gap in tourism
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Egon Smeral
Euro-Implications for Tourism: 34th Meeting of the Tourist Research Center
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Egon Smeral
Tourismusjahr 1991 durch Sondereffekte dominiert
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M. Lohmann, H. Pechlaner, Egon Smeral, Karl Wöber
Österreich-Tourismus auf dem Weg in die Zukunft
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P. Laimer, J. Ostertag-Sydler, Egon Smeral
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Tourism is a big factor in the economy of Upper Austria: According to the regional tourism satellite account computed for Upper Austria by Statistics Austria and WIFO, total spending on holiday and business trips, visits to relatives and friends and stays at weekend and second homes amounted to € 3.18 billion in 2008, a plus of 7.7 percent. Of this sum, 74.4 percent were spent by domestic travellers, 25.2 percent by foreigners and 0.4 percent by domestic travellers for stays in weekend and second homes. Tourism directly added € 1.50 billion (+6.3 percent) to output in Upper Austria, which in mathematical terms corresponds to 3.2 percent of the gross regional product. Based on the input-output table for 2005, the value directly and indirectly added by tourism to the Upper Austrian economy was 6.3 percent in 2008.
Egon Smeral
International Tourism Demand and the Business Cycle
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The focus of this study is on presenting causes and hypotheses for the existence of asymmetric income and price effects on tourism demand across business cycles. The theoretical assumptions were tested by analyzing tourism import demand in different source markets, drawing on econometric models that provide for the magnitudes of price and income effects either to vary depending on the phase of the business cycle or to remain stable across the business cycles. The major outcome of this study is that the general assumption in most of the tourism demand studies—i.e. that the income effects are symmetric—should not be expected to be automatically true for every source market.
P Laimer, Egon Smeral
Ein Tourismus-Satellitenkonto für Wien. Ökonomische Zusammenhänge, Methoden und Hauptergebnisse
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Egon Smeral
Ökonomische Erklärungsfaktoren der langfristigen Entwicklung der touristischen Nachfrage
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S. Kaniovski, M. Peneder, Egon Smeral
Determinants of Firm Survival in the Austrian Accomodation Sector
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Egon Smeral
Combining Tourism Forecasts: A better way to minimize forecasting errors
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Egon Smeral, M Czerny
Markets in Eastern Europe--Tourism Opportunities for the Construction Industry
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E. Smeral
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Die Studie analysiert die österreichische Tourismus-und Freizeitwirtschaft aus einer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Perspektive sowie im Kontext der internationalen touristischen Wettbewerbssituation. Im Jahr 2011 betrugen die Tourismusaufwendungen von in- und ausländischen Gästen und die Ausgaben der Österreicher und Österreicherinnen für den Freizeitkonsum am Wohnort insgesamt 58,20 Mrd. € (+3,4% gegenüber 2010); dazu trugen die beiden Hauptausgabengruppen je etwa die Hälfte bei.
The study analyses the Austrian tourism and leisure industry from an overall economic perspective and in the context of international competition. In 2011, tourism spending by Austrian and foreign guests and Austrians' expenditure on domestic leisure consumption made up € 58.20 billion (+3.4 percent over 2010), with the two main groups contributing about equally.
E. Smeral
Forecasting Hotel Prices in Vienna: A Short-Term Approach
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Egon Smeral
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E Smeral
The Decline in Alpine Tourism: Why the Austrian Tourism Market Shares Decline in the Long-Term
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E. Smeral
How International Tourism is Coping with the Consequences of the Financial and Economics Crisis
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In the wake of the global recession and faced with the first signs of a potential recovery, this contribution concentrates on analysing international tourism. Starting out from a description of the key macroeconomic factors driving the industry, the paper then analyses their effects on the demand for traveling abroad in five source markets such as Australia, Canada, Japan, the US and the EU 15. The relationships were estimated econometrically for the period 1977-2008. Based on the developed models, the cyclical impact of the recession in 2009 was estimated to be a decline of around 10% in terms of outbound expenditures (at constant prices and exchange rates) for the totality of the five analysed source markets. For 2010, the forecast models promise a slight recovery of 1% in terms of aggregated outbound expenditures; for 2011, a growth of 3% is expected. Model simulations based on a risk scenario for the euro zone showed that outbound expenditures of the EU 15 will shrink significantly in 2010 and 2011 rather than recover as predicted by the baseline scenario. Beside the cyclical impacts the paper analyses also the structural aspects of the economic downturn.
Egon Smeral
Arbeitslos im Tourismus: Eine Strukturanalyse der Arbeitslosigkeit im Fremdenverkehr
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E Smeral
Methods for Measuring the Incremental Economic Impact of a Temporary Event: A Critical Assessment
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Egon Smeral, G Lehner, P Brandner, K Kratena, M Wüger
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Egon Smeral
Austria as a Tourist Destination: Options for Repositioning
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Egon Smeral
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E Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Evaluating the scientific value of Econometric Tourism Demand Studies: Some further insight
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Egon Smeral, E Walterskirchen
Der Einfluß von Wirtschaftswachstum und Wettbewebsfähigkeit auf die Leistungsbilanz
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E. Smeral
How International Tourism is Coping with the Consequences of the Financial and Economic Crisis
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Egon Smeral
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E. Smeral
Erweiterungen des Tourismussatellitenkontos - Das Beispiel Oesterreich
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Egon Smeral
Ökonomische Aspekte des Glückspiels
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Egon Smeral
European Monetary Union and International Tourism
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Egon Smeral
Beyond the Myth of Growth in Tourism
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Variations in seasonal tourism behavior across the business cycles
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This article analyses for the first time the asymmetric behavior in tourism demand by season across the business cycles based on time series and contributes herewith to a clear understanding of cyclical irregularities in tourism demand. For that reason, we study the outbound expenditures of four source markets per quarter, each understood as its own time series. In this new approach, we apply four types of demand functions showing distinct relationships only for the first, second, third, and fourth quarters. The results revealed strong evidence of asymmetric income elasticities in tourism demand by season across the business cycles. We emphasize coherently that the integration of psychological factors such as loss aversion and other quality-of-life aspects as well as economic factors like liquidity constraints, reluctant lending behavior of banks, precautionary saving, changing household behavior, and financial innovations delivers a new framework to explain asymmetric behavior in tourism demand.
Egon Smeral
Forecasting performance of seasonal tourism demand models
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Egon Smeral, Kirsten Hallman, Anita Zehrer
The competitiveness of ski destinations exploring subjective versus objective measurements.
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E. Smeral
The Productivity Puzzle in Tourism
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral, Haiyan Song
Varying Elasticities and Forecasting Performance
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E. Smeral
Theory, Econometrics and Bridge Building in Tourism Economics
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P Laimer, Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Tourismus im Sog der Finanz- und Konjunkturkrise
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Die aktuelle Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise breitet sich rasch aus, und die makroökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen verschlechtern sich, sodass für heuer ein Rückgang der Wirtschaftsleistung in den wichtigsten Herkunftsmärkten des österreichischen Tourismus prognostiziert wird. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden negative Auswirkungen auf den internationalen und den österreichischen Tourismus erwartet. Aufgrund von Wettbewerbsvorteilen werden die realen Einnahmen aus dem internationalen Reiseverkehr Tourismusexporte) im Jahr 2009 in Österreich mit −3½% weniger stark zurückgehen als im europäischen Durchschnitt (−4½%). 2010 werden Österreichs Tourismusexporte bereits stagnieren, während der Durchschnitt weiter sinken wird, sodass Österreich weiter Marktanteile gewinnen sollte.
Oliver Fritz, Peter Laimer, Jürgen Weiß, Egon Smeral
Bericht über die Bedeutung der österreichischen Tourismus- und Freizeitwirtschaft im Jahr 2016
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Egon Smeral
Evaluating Public Resources Used in Tourism
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Egon Smeral, Ch. Witt, St. Witt
Econometric Forecasts of Tourism: Trends to 2000
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
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E. Smeral
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E. Smeral
Strategien zur Verminderung der Umwelteinfluesse des Tourismus
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Egon Smeral
Tourism as a Research Field of Economics
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Anita Zehrer, Egon Smeral, Kirstin Hallmann
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Studies about measuring competitiveness of winter sport destinations are rare. Subjective measurements seem to dominate research mostly either from demand or supply side; however, seldom integrated approaches from both sides are used. Objective measures seem to be scarce, and comparisons of both subjective and objective measures seem to have been neglected so far. To increase the credibility of previous findings, this article relies on subjective primary data (demand and supply side), also named “soft” data, and objective secondary data (demand side), also named “hard” data, on the competitiveness of six Alpine destinations. Findings show evidence that subjective performance measures show deviations from the results based on objective measures.
Egon Smeral, M Wüger
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E Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Seasonal forecasting performance considering varying income elasticities in tourism demand
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E Smeral
TSA-Extensions: The Case of Austria
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E Smeral
The Effects of EU-Enlargement on Tourism Development in the Context of a World Tourism Model
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Ulrich Gunter, Egon Smeral
European outbound tourism in times of economic stagnation
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Accounting for the instability of tourism income elasticities in the European Union-15 since 2004, estimations show that income elasticities in the period 2004–2014 were greater in slow-growth periods (above 1) than in fast-growth periods (below 1). Due to the gradual deterioration of the economic environment since 2004, the small income improvements in the fast-growth periods were used relatively more for satisfying pent-up demand for necessary consumer goods or precautionary savings than for traveling abroad. The relatively high income elasticities in the slow-growth periods resulted from negative adjustments due to the effects of the economic downturn.
Egon Smeral
Long-Term Forecasts for Tourism Industries: The Case of Austria and Switzerland
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Egon Smeral
The Need for Redimensioning in the Tourism Industry
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Egon Smeral, Lucie Plzakova
COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and looming risks for tourism recovery
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E. Smeral
Spannungsfeld: Konjunktur und Tourismus
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Egon Smeral, P Laimer
A Tourism Satellite Account for Austria-The Economics Methodology and Results 1999-2003
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Egon Smeral
Ein Entscheidungsmodell für Konsumieren und Sparen
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Egon Smeral, H Pechlaner
Customer Value Management as a Determinant of the Competitive Position of Tourism Destinations
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P. Laimer, Egon Smeral, S. Ehn-Fragner
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Tourismus-Satellitenkonten (TSA) dienen der Erfassung und Analyse des Tourismus als ökonomisches Phänomen im Zusammenhang mit der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung (VGR) und anderen Wirtschaftsstatistiken. Die VGR bildet dazu den Rahmen und den Integrationsraster. Entsprechend dem TSA-Konzept erfolgt eine Aufgliederung in "tourismusspezifische", "tourismusverwandte" und "nicht-tourismus spezifische" Produktion. 2012 trug die gesamte Tourismuswirtschaft in Österreich 7,4% zum BIP bei, 2013 und 2014 dürfte die Kennzahl jeweils bei
7,3% liegen. Die direkten und indirekten Beschäftigungseffekte des Tourismus erreichten 2012 9,2% der Gesamtbeschäft igung (Erwerbstätige auf Basis von Vollzeitäquivalenten).
E Smeral
Long-Term Forecasts for International Tourism
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Ulrich Gunter, Egon Smeral
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Using a quarterly data sample of 28 EU countries ranging from 2004Q1 to 2016Q4, real tourism exports are modeled and estimated as a function of relative tourism export prices and aggregate real GDP. For almost all countries, HEGY tests applied to first-differenced variables cannot reject the null hypothesis of the presence of seasonal unit roots. Seasonal differencing would be necessary to remove the seasonal patterns from the data, yet employing seasonally differenced data results in information loss, distorted elasticity estimates, and mediocre forecast accuracy. Our suggestion is therefore to perform estimation and forecasting for each quarter separately. This approach avoids the use of seasonal differencing, results in plausible, seasonally varying estimates of income elasticities, and yields statistically significantly superior forecast accuracy, also in comparison to two data-driven benchmarks for seasonal data (i.e., SARIMA and ETS).
Irem Önder, Egon Smeral
Comparison of Univariate Time Series Forecasting Methods to Predict Tourism Demand in Vienna
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Egon Smeral
Exportschwankungen und Differenzierungsgrad
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Dagmar Lund-Durlacher, Stefan Gössling, Hannes Antonschmidt, Gudrun Obersteiner, Egon Smeral, Martin Wildenberg
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Egon Smeral
Forecasting Performance and Varying Demand Elasticities
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Egon Smeral
Tourismus 2000: Analysen, Konzepte und Prognosen
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Egon Smeral
Tourism Satellite Accounts: A Critical Assessment
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Experts faced with the problems of measuring the size of tourism and its contribution to GDP have proposed tourism satellite accounts (TSAs), which focus on a regular stream of financial data that can be compared through time and with other economic activities at a regional, national, and international level. The article makes it clear that in measuring the TSA-based contribution made by the tourism industry to national or regional GDP, results must be adjusted for indirect effects and intermediate consumption (such as business trips of residents). Using the case of Austria and two of its Länder (states), the article demonstrates the sheer scope by which the tourism industry’s contribution to the national and regional GDP is underestimated. Even when business trips by residents are included and thus make for a greater contribution of tourism to GDP, this fails to compensate for the downward bias produced by ignoring the indirect effects of tourism demand.
E. Smeral
Measuring the Economic Impact of Tourism: The Case of Lower and Upper Austria
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Purpose – This study aims to demonstrate that the information content of a regional tourism satellite account (RTSA) is a very complex phenomenon and the complete impact of tourism is difficult to capture. Design/methodology/approach – The study is based on the recommended framework for tourism satellite account-building and is concentrated on Lower and Upper Austria, two of the nine Austrian federal states. The RTSA provides an analytical framework of issues related to tourism economics and tourism policy as well as for model building, tourism growth analysis and productivity measurement. Findings – Considering only direct effects, calculations showed that tourism made around 3 1/2 per cent of the Upper Austrian gross regional product. In case of Lower Austria, the relevant figure was around 1 percentage lower. Considering the direct and indirect effects, tourism contributed almost 6 per cent to the overall gross regional product of Upper Austria, and in Lower Austria, tourism contributed around 5 per cent to the overall gross regional product. Originality/value – This paper is one of the first papers about considering (beside the direct effects) also the indirect effects of tourism and pointing out the true economic impact of tourism on the whole economy on a regional level.
Egon Smeral
Österreichs Marktanteil in den westlichen Industrieländern
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Egon Smeral
Variations in Seasonal Tourism Behavior Across the Business cycles,
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E. Smeral
Tourism Satellite Accounts as a Policy Tool – Some Critical Reflections
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E Smeral
Die Zukunft des internationalen Tourismus - Visionen für das 21. Jahrhundert
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M. Lohmann, H. Pechlaner, Egon Smeral, Karl Wöber
Österreich Tourismus vor Weichenstellung: Stagnation oder Wachstum?
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Peter Laimer, Egon Smeral
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E Smeral
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P. Laimer, J. Ostertag-Sydler, Egon Smeral
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Tourismus-Satellitenkonten (TSA) dienen dazu, den Tourismus als ökonomisches Phänomen im Zusammenhang mit der VGR und anderen Wirtschaftsstatistiken zu erfassen und zu analysieren, wobei die VGR den Rahmen und Integrationsraster bildet. Das TSA ist jedoch mehr als ein VGR-Subsystem, vor allem, weil je nach Bedarf zusätzliche wichtige Informationen wie Beschäftigung oder Investitionen berücksichtigt werden können. Entsprechend dem TSA-Konzept erfolgt eine Aufgliederung in "tourismusspezifische", "tourismusverwandte" und "nicht-tourismusspezifische" Produktion. Der Beitrag der gesamten Tourismuswirtschaft (direkte und indirekte Wertschöpfung) zum BIP machte im Jahr 2010 auf Basis der Wertschöpfungsmultiplikatoren laut Input-Output-Analyse 2005 7,5% aus. Diese Kennzahl dürfte 2011 bei 7,4% liegen und im Jahr 2012 weiter leicht zurückgehen. Die direkten und indirekten Effekte des Tourismus trugen 2010 mit 9,9% zur Gesamtbeschäftigung (Erwerbstätige auf Basis von Vollzeitäquivalenten) bei.
Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSAs) are used to perceive and analyse the tourism industry as an economic phenomenon in the context of the national accounts and other business statistics, using the national accounts as a framework and integration pattern. Yet, a TSA is more than just a subsystem of the national accounts, especially since it can incorporate additional information such as employment and investment whenever required. The TSA concept provides for tourism-specific, tourism-related and non-tourism-specific production. In 2010, the tourism industry as a whole (direct and indirect value added) contributed 7.5 percent according to the value-adding multipliers of the 2005 input-output analysis. This figure appears to have declined to 7.4 percent in 2011 and is set to continue its slight decline in 2012. The direct and indirect effects of tourism contributed 9.9 percent to overall employment (workers in terms of full-time equivalents) in 2010.
Egon Smeral
Some Clarifications on the Tourism Growth Puzzle
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Egon Smeral
Die Volkswirtschaftliche Bedeutung des Tourismus
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Egon Smeral
Questioning the stability of tourism income elasticity: a critical perspective
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P Laimer, Egon Smeral
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Ulrich Gunter, Egon Smeral, Irem Önder
Statistical Report on Tourism Accommodation Establishments – Forecasting Arrivals and Overnights
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Egon Smeral
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P Laimer, Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral, M Wüger
Prognose der kurzfristigen Entwicklung der Tourismusnachfrage: Wintersaison 2006/2007
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Egon Smeral
Tourism Forecasting Performance Considering the Instability of Demand Elasticities
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This study highlights that accounting for the fact that tourism elasticities do not remain stable is crucial for forecasting situations. We demonstrate that approaches with constant elasticity assumptions might lead to substantial forecasting failures, especially in periods characterized by major economic fluctuations and changes in the macroeconomic environment. Therefore, in the course of distinct business cycles, we have to take into account that different price and income effects are to be expected. The main reasons why income elasticity may vary across the business cycle include loss aversion, liquidity constraints, and precautionary savings. By analyzing smooth transition autoregressive models and time-varying parameter approaches, we demonstrate that elasticities may vary as a result of structural changes in consumer behavior and/or policy regime shifts. Income elasticities may also change in the medium term in line with the worsening of the macroeconomic environment and indicate that tourism is no longer a luxury good.
Ulrich Gunter, Egon Smeral
The decline of tourism income elasticities in a global context
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Based on the standard tourism demand model for quarterly tourism exports of six different world regions and their total, the authors applied a panel econometric approach to measure potential differences in income elasticities due to the medium-term speed of growth of the world economy. The evidence demonstrated that, related to the identified different growth periods, income elasticities showed significant variations. For 1977–1992, it was possible to measure the highest income elasticities of all periods. For 1994–2003 and 2004–2013, the income elasticities decreased from period to period. For the last decade, the values of the income elasticities were lower than one. The reasons for the decline in the income elasticities from the first to the second period were the ongoing saturation process and the slowing down of economic growth resulting in a change in consumer behaviour. The decline in income elasticities from the second to the third period was mainly due to the dramatic deterioration in the economic environment contributing to higher uncertainty about the future, with the result that precautionary saving increased, liquidity constraints limited expenditures on luxuries in favour of necessities and tourists preferred domestic destinations instead of going abroad.
Ulrich Gunter, Egon Smeral, Bozana Zekan
Forecasting European Tourism After the COVID-19 Crisis
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Egon Smeral, M Wüger
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Egon Smeral
Challenges of the hotel and restaurant industry
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Egon Smeral, P. Huber, U. Mühlberger, G. Schwarz
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For Austrian hotels and restaurants, the education and training requirements and the demand for labour concentrate mostly on traditional occupations and job areas. Hotels and restaurants offer an above-average number of occupations for younger workers: 80 percent of the workers in the operations surveyed within the frame of this study are younger than 45. Most of the key jobs in hotels are vested in persons who have completed an apprenticeship or secondary school. More than half of those working in hotels and restaurants are paid in accordance with the collective bargaining agreement. The on-line survey found that all of the occupations reviewed have problems recruiting suitable workers. A majority of the enterprises intends to employ exactly those age cohorts (younger than 45) who according to demographic projections will be fewer in number in the future. Model calculations find a possible shortage of workers in the long term (from 2020 on). What hotels and restaurants in Austria are looking for are workers who are fluent in many languages and characterised by innovative and autonomous work habits. In order to overcome staff shortages, businesses try chiefly to boost productivity and develop non-seasonal or year-round offers. Other measures are to employ school leavers, mobilise those returning to the labour market, create worker pools and hire older staff and people from abroad.
Egon Smeral
Ökonomische Rahmenbedingungen für die Erstellung eines touristischen Weltmarketingkonzepts
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Egon Smeral, F Hartl, W Kleemann
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E Smeral
Ökonomische Aspekte der österreichischen Kasinos
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Egon Smeral, Ulrich Gunter
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Egon Smeral
The Decline in the Tourism Surplus
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
Wirtschaftsentwicklungsprogramm Nograd--Tourismus
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E. Smeral
World Tourism Forecasting - Keep it Quick, Simple and Dirty
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Egon Smeral
Variations in seasonal asymmetric behavior across the business cycles
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Egon Smeral, K Prilisauer
Aspekte einer verstärkten Tourismusförderung
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Egon Smeral
Emerging Eastern European Markets
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Egon Smeral
Seasonal forecasting performance considering varying income elasticities in tourism demand
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Egon Smeral, Hayan Song
Varying Elasticities and Forecasting Performance
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This study assumes that tourists' demand reactions to income and price changes are asymmetric at different phases of the business cycle. In order to test this hypothesis, we analyzed the demand for international tourism in five source markets using a modified growth rate (MGR) model. The empirical evidence demonstrates that income elasticity is indeed asymmetric across the business cycle in four source markets. In addition, asymmetric price effects were found for one source market. To compare forecasting performance, we also estimated a time-varying parameter (TVP) model. The results show that the MGR model generally outperforms the TVP model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
E. Smeral
International Tourism Demand and the Business Cycle: the Symmetry Assumption Revisited
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E Smeral
The economics of Tourism Satellite Accounts
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Egon Smeral
The future of tourism: luxury or necessity
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Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral, Haiyan Song
Time Varying Elasticities and Forecasting
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Egon Smeral
Overcrowding of tourism destinations- some suggestions for a solution
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Peter Laimer, Sabine Ehn-Fragner, O. Fritz, Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral
The Economic Impact of Tourism in Austria
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Egon Smeral, Peter Laimer
A Tourism Satellite Account for Austria
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P Laimer, Egon Smeral
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E Smeral
Quandaries of the Labour Market in Tourism as Exemplified by the Case of Austria
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Egon Smeral
The Economic Impact of Travel and Tourism in a Mountain Area: The Case of Voralberg (Austria)
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Egon Smeral
The Economic Impact of Tourism in Austria
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Egon Smeral, Antonia Correia, Paulo Rodrigues
Editors' Introduction: Advanced Methods to Measure Tourism Impacts
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Egon Smeral, P. Huber, U. Mühlberger, G. Schwarz
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Egon Smeral, U Huemer, H Mahringer, B Novotny, K Smeral
Strukturanalyse des Arbeitsmarktes im Beherbergungs- und Gaststättenwesen
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Egon Smeral, M Wüger
Prognose der kurzfristigen Entwicklung der Tourismusnachfrage: Wintersaison 2005/2006
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Egon Smeral, O Fritz, M Schratzenstaller, E Thöni
Bedeutung und Effekte der öffentlichen Sportförderung
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P. Laimer, S. Ehn-Fragner, O. Fritz, Egon Smeral
Ein Tourismus-Satellitenkonto für Wien: Ökonomische Zusammenhänge, Methoden und Hauptergebnisse 2013
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